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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."